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02/16/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With pitchers and catchers all set to head out to Florida and Arizona, it is apparent Major League Baseball is ready to fill some of the void in the sports world left by the end of the National Football League season.
To that end, it is time to talk about the 2012 campaign and which teams are the so-called "best bets" to win the National and American League pennants as well as the World Series.
Whatever betting site you visit, the Philadelphia Phillies are the early favorites to win this season's Fall Classic. That is somewhat surprising on one level as manager Charlie Manuel's squad has gone in reverse since winning the 2008 World Series. Don't forget, the Phillies lost to the New York Yankees in the 2009 Series, were eliminated by the San Franciso Giants in the NL Championship Series the following year, and then failed to even make the NLCS in 2011, losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the final game of the Division Series.
On the other hand, Philadelphia does not have to defeat the kinds of teams the top AL clubs have to face in order to reach to the World Series. And since getting there is half the battle, the Phillies' odds are lower than all of the AL teams that might have more overall talent.
The difference between Philadelphia and the second- and third-ranked NL squads (Miami and San Francisco) in terms of odds to even reach the Fall Classic is around to 5-1. Over in the American League, the Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers are not only all lumped together, but also all interchangeable depending on the sportsbook. Furthermore, all five teams are between 3-1 to 5-1 odds to even win the AL pennant.
With the departure of NL stars such as Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to the AL, the balance of power has shifted to the Junior Circuit. Some might say the AL was already the dominant league over the past few seasons, but key statistics prove otherwise, especially when it comes to the World Series hardware. The Cardinals come into 2012 as the reigning World Series champions after disposing the Rangers in an exciting seven- game series last October and the Giants proved best in 2011 with a five-game win over Texas.
The Senior Circuit has taken home the World Series in three of the last four seasons and four of the last six. Moreover, the NL has won the last two All- Star games after failing to come home a winner between 1996 and 2009.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia is the NL favorite because the team returns three of its four aces from a year ago: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. However, despite last year's 102 regular-season victories, the bottom fell out in the postseason when the offense fell apart.
The Phillies batted .226 as a team against St. Louis, but that number does not tell the whole story. Take away the 11-6 victory in Game 1 and the batting average drops down to a pathetic .181.
General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. upgraded the team's bench over the winter, but last year's problems came more from the starting lineup than the reserves. This season might not be as strong with slugged Ryan Howard out for an indefinite period of time, and the rest of the offense is loaded with aging veterans, such as Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco.
It is true that good pitching beats good hitting, but the Phillies were not even the team with the best pitching the last two years. Philadelphia is not as much of a lock to win the NL East as it was the last few years. Still, a 10-game drop-off from 2011 should be good enough to keep the Phillies in the postseason. However, taking 2-1 to win the pennant and 6-1 to win the World Series are sucker bets.
Two teams to keep in mind as possible NL pennant and World Series plays are Atlanta (10-1, 25-1) and Cincinnati (12-1, 25-1).
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas has been the class of the AL with two straight World Series appearances. Nevertheless, improvements made by other AL clubs might place the Rangers on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned.
The Angels have a very good chance of dethroning Texas as AL West champions with the additions of Pujols and former Rangers' starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson.
Detroit brought in Fielder to protect Miguel Cabrera, so the Tigers have to be considered one of the favorites to win the AL pennant. Jim Leyland's squad has a much easier road than the favorites in the East or West since it is almost a forgone conclusion the Tigers will win the Central.
The Yankees and Red Sox will once again renew their rivalry in the East and you can never count out the Tampa Bay Rays, especially after last year's dramatic comeback to make the playoffs.
Detroit is the team to beat in the American League, so the 4-1 odds to win the pennant certainly look appealing. In addition, the Tigers are a great bet at 8-1 to win the World Series.
<< Flames battle Stars in Big D
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Flames have been racking up points so far in February
and their latest convincing victory has them within a point of a playoff spot.
Calgary puts a six-game point streak on the line this evening against the
Dallas Star
<< Sharks continue trek with test in Tampa
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After splitting the first two tests of an epic nine-game
road trip, the San Jose Sharks will travel to the Sunshine State for tonight's
battle against the Lightning at Tampa Times Forum.
Thanks to a tennis tournament curre
<< Sliding Wild welcome Jets to St. Paul
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time the Wild and Jets squared off, Minnesota was
at the top of the NHL standings. Things have certainly changed since.
Minnesota hopes to avoid a sixth straight defeat and falling further back in
the playoff race
<< Leino, Sabres visit Flyers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The struggling Philadelphia Flyers hope the return of Ilya
Bryzgalov can help them avoid their sixth loss in seven games, as they get set
to host the Buffalo Sabres in tonight's clash at Wells Fargo Center.
The Flyers are
Jones back for 3-point contest; Howard, Durant to coach celebs >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami's James Jones will defend his All-Star
three-point title at this year's festivities, while Orlando's Dwight Howard
and Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant will be coaches for the celebrity game.
Joining J
Dortmund's Kagawa tears ankle ligament >>
Dortmund, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Borussia Dortmund's Japanese midfielder
Shinji Kagawa tore a ligament in his left ankle in training and will be out at
least two weeks, the Bundesliga club announced Thursday.
The 22-year-old was injur
Marseille's Remy to miss three weeks >>
Marseille, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marseille striker Loic Remy suffered a
hamstring injury in Wednesday's Coupe de France win over Bourg-Peronnas and
will be sidelined three weeks, the Ligue 1 club said Thursday.
The 25-year-old Remy
Red Sox sign Ohlendorf, Gomez to minor league deals >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox inked pitcher Ross Ohlendorf
and first baseman Mauro Gomez to minor league deals with invitations to spring
training on Thursday.
Ohlendorf went 1-3 with an 8.15 earned run average in ni
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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